According to a recent article published in the Harvard Business Review, the Private Equity industry is navigating through its mid-life crisis. Per the HBR piece, a recent study found a meaningful drop in average buyout performance of six percentage points between the 10-year annualized return in 1999 and the comparable return in 2019. The challenges that face the industry are two-fold, both financial and operational. We still find ourselves in a seller’s market with multiples remaining at record highs and that, combined with a reduction in effectiveness of traditional PE financial tools (i.e., leverage and price arbitrage), has created an environment for PE where it is more difficult to maintain high performance levels. These financial head winds are being accelerated by operational inhibitors as well. HBR suggests that “Global competition and commoditization make it harder for products to command a premium price, which squeezes margins, and often a business’s easy-to-accomplish cost savings have already been collected by previous owners. A classic PE strategy — integrating small acquisitions into an existing business — still offers revenue growth and other benefits, but its popularity raises the prices of these acquisitions, so returns naturally fall”. These factors and market conditions facing the Private Equity industry have forced firms to evolve in their thinking around value creation and where it can be generated for each of their investments. What we are seeing with many mid-market PE firms is that the traditional model of equipping former CXO’s with Operating Partner titles but deploying them in an advisor capacity is losing favor. More and more firms are creating Portfolio Operations teams comprised of former executives, consultants, and operators. The key difference in the Portfolio Operations model vs. the traditional Operating Partner model is that these folks are required to roll up their sleeves and get busy creating value, prioritizing initiatives, and achieving alignment with portco leadership. There are both specialist and generalist operations models that exist in mid-market PE and these teams are deployed across the portfolio to execute on Value Creation Plans (VCPs). These initiatives can range from ERP deployment to M&A synergy capture, to procurement. All of which are worked on in hopes to increase efficiencies within the investment and ultimately complete value that can no longer be attained through traditional measures mentioned in the first paragraph. At Treya Partners, our work is oftentimes alongside mid-market portfolio operations teams. As portfolio operations practices mature across mid-market private equity, we expect to see a continued shift where teams will be comprised of more generalists who will then bring in trusted 3rd parties to serve as force multipliers on their initiatives. The PE operating model is continuing to evolve not only as to how the team is comprised, but also how they engage with portfolio companies. Working alongside executive teams and finding the right balance between creating value and finding alignment with portfolio company leadership is a major key to success for PE Operations teams. A Kearney study that polled PE backed CEOs was called out some best ways for PE operations teams to engage. Per the Kearney study, “The vast majority of CEOs (nearly 90 percent) think the PE operations team should get involved during the pre-acquisition due diligence phase. The rest want interaction to start as soon as practical after the transaction closes”. This is indicative of a conclusion that we at Treya Partners have drawn in assisting PE operations teams engage with their portfolio companies, assess their spend, and execute where opportunities exist alongside portco leadership. Our conclusion is that the sooner a PE operations team can get engaged and present value to a new investment, the better. It is crucial that value creation teams are engaging during this honeymoon phase where a company is going to be most willing to embrace the ways in which their new private equity ownership can immediately benefit from being a part of their new portfolio. The same Kearney study goes on to illustrate which initiatives portco CXO’s require the most support and where PE Operating Teams tend to deliver it: Additionally, challenging the status quo and bringing fresh ideas to the table in a collaborative fashion has also shown to be strongly valued by CXO’s: In our experience, a PE operating team bringing a new portfolio company on to Treya’s leveraged private equity small parcel contract shortly after onboarding has been an effective way to score a quick win and establish a collaborative relationship. Saving a company a few hundred thousand dollars with the stroke of a pen and minimal business disruption goes a long way to establishing credibility for a PE operating team and set the stage for future willingness to engage further at the portco level and leverage more of the value creation tools in the PE firm’s toolbox. The continued maturation of the PE industry, combined with the increased competitiveness we are seeing in the deal markets, is going to force the hand of more and more firms to equip themselves with folks who are exclusively focused on creating value for their investments. It will be exciting to track the evolution of different funds that are different stages of this cycle. I would expect to see most mid-market firms with no dedicated operating teams begin bringing on operations focused individuals in house over the next 5 years. For those firms with existing PE operations teams, the maturation process will consist of continued work within their portfolios which will provide valuable lessons learned. I expect they will also work towards striking the most effective balance between building out in house resources and partnering with 3rd party resources to serve as arms and legs for certain initiatives. This is the function we at Treya Partners serve with most of our Private Equity clients. Most operating teams that we work with have realized they are most valuable and effective when working on high profile initiatives in collaboration with the Investment teams and they lean on trusted 3rd parties for projects that create value and with the right partner, can be repurposed over and over again within the portfolio to drive optimal value. We relish in our role as an extension of PE operating teams and are looking forward to next few years as more firms adopt this model and continue to fine tune the delicate art of PE operations. By Chris Tasiopoulos About the AuthorChris has over 5 years of management consulting, client relationship managment, and business development experience. In his role as Business Development Manager at Treya Partners, Chris is responsible for client relationship managment, Private Equity client cultivation, and development. Chris has led numerous strategic relationships and worked closely alongside both investment and Operations teams at Private Equity firms incluidng Waud Capital, Trive Capital, Trivest Capital, HCI Equity, Greenbriar Equity Group, Heartwood Partners, etc. At the portfolio company level, Chris has worked closely with exectuive leadership to identify cost reduction opportunities and marshalled the Treya deliery team to execute on these opportunities.
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With significant pressures building, PE firms and Their Portfolio Companies Need to Act Proactively As Recent Supply Chain Distruptions are Creating Inflation ![]() “Good luck finding a rental car in Hawaii! My friend ended up renting a U-Haul on her Hawaiian vacation recently because she couldn’t get a rental car due to the shortage.” These are words we never expected to hear this summer, but have. A series of unrelated recent events – the Covid-19 pandemic, expiration of temporary tariffs relief, the deep freeze in Texas, the Suez Canal blockage, and the Colonial Pipeline hacking incident - have led to a severely disrupted global supply chain – and in turn, supply chain disruptions like these. A significant imbalance between supply and demanding is also fueling inflation. As demand rebounds as pandemic restrictions are lifted, and the American economy feels the effects of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package, supply is constrained due to raw materials shortages and shipping delays. With supply not meeting demand, Producer Price Index (PPI) as measured by different Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indices is significantly higher than twelve months ago. Input cost increases are resulting in both business to business and business to consumer price increases. For instance, US gasoline prices are at a 7 year high, used car prices are up 24% year-over-year, and lumber prices are up a whopping 95% from pandemic lows. ![]() Portfolio Company Impact Many PE portfolio companies whose revenues were negatively impacted by Covid have seen a healthy bounce back, with business back at close to pre-Covid levels. However, while some of these companies used Covid as an opportunity for some belt tightening, none of them forecasted the level of inflation we are seeing in input pricing. As the rest of 2021 unfolds, this will lead to significant margin erosion, which most companies have not anticipated for, or built into their budgets and financials. Many portfolio companies, as they close out the year, will be looking at significantly worse financials (than current forecasts) if they do not act proactively. How Can Private Equity Firms & Their Portfolio Companies Combat Inflation 1. "Push Back" Against Supplier Cost Increases
2. Pass through Price Increases to Customers (where possible)
3. Utilize Strategic Sourcing
About Treya Partners Treya Partners is a management consulting firm specializing in procurement value creation, strategic sourcing, and spend management advisory services for Private Equity. Treya was established in 2006 by a seasoned group of supply management professionals and has served hundreds of PE-owned companies across a broad range of industry sectors including manufacturing, distribution, retail, financial services, life sciences, healthcare, and technology. Treya delivers meaningful EBITDA improvements from indirect (SG&A) and COGS categories in addition to implementing transformative procurement projects. For further information, visit Treya Partners online at https://www.treyapartners.com. By: Barnali Mishra About the Author Barnali Mishra is a Principal with Treya Partners. Barnali has over 17 years of procurement consulting experience and has delivered high impact procurement and supply chain services to numerous private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Barnali has led and managed strategic sourcing initiatives addressing over forty spend categories and has extensive experience performing spend analysis, opportunity assessments, planning and executing competitive solicitations, conducting complex category strategic sourcing, and performing fact-based supplier negotiations. Barnali holds both a BA and an MA from Stanford University. Barnali resides in San Francisco and enjoys traveling the world with her husband and daughter. A Key Missing Ingredient in the Private Equity Due Diligence Process in Today's Market ![]() The Backdrop: It's a Sellers Market with Dry Powder at a High Within the world of private equity, dry powder has reached a new high of $1.4 trillion, having grown 17% annually since 2015. In turn, there are a lot of investors and not enough deals to be found. It is a seller’s market, and GPs are having a tough time justifying doing deals at today’s high multiples of 12 – 17x. Concurrently, in our experience at Treya Partners, we find very few Private Equity (PE) firms formally incorporate procurement value creation into their due diligence and underwriting process. Sometimes contract risk mitigation (e.g., in the case of Carve Outs) is considered, but rarely are procurement cost savings reliably estimated and underwritten into the deal thesis. With purchase multiples being high and a fiercely competitive market for deals, GPs need to recognize the competitive edge that can be gained from reliably estimating and underwriting procurement value creation into the deal. ![]() Why to Incorporate Procurement into the Due Diligence Process We at Treya recommend that PE firms begin including Procurement Value Creation as a critical element of their due diligence strategy. Not only can procurement optimization improve cash flow right away, it can set the stage for future acquisitions, and ultimately, maximize value at exit. More importantly, if there is a significant procurement opportunity, it can lead to a much lower “effective” purchase multiple for the deal, allowing for a higher purchase price and ultimately in a higher close rate. How & When to Incorporate Procurement into Due Diligence Incorporating procurement value into your firm’s due diligence is not difficult – an Accounts Payable (AP) spend analysis will give you a directional idea of the procurement savings opportunity available. Include procurement up front in your data collection efforts - request a year’s worth of AP data and know that high-level spend by vendor data will suffice if that is all that is readily available. Potential procurement savings and associated value can then be estimated from this data. In addition to SG&A expenses, COGS can also be targeted to significantly enhance the opportunity. A confidence level should be built into savings estimates to mitigate execution risk. Done right, this process will create a significant competitive edge for winning deals. Sources: Pitchbook, Private Equity Wire By: Barnali Mishra Mishra is a Principal with Treya Partners. Barnali has over 17 years of procurement consulting experience and has delivered high impact procurement and supply chain services to numerous private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Barnali has led and managed strategic sourcing initiatives addressing over forty spend categories and has extensive experience performing spend analysis, opportunity assessments, planning and executing competitive solicitations, conducting complex category strategic sourcing, and performing fact-based supplier negotiations. Barnali holds both a BA and an MA from Stanford University. Barnali resides in San Francisco and enjoys traveling the world with her husband and daughter. The 5 Most Important Considerations in Launching a Successful Private Equity Procurement Program4/19/2021 ![]() At Treya Partners, our focus is primarily on cost reduction initiatives for Mid-Market Private Equity firms and their portfolio companies. As you would expect, we have conversations with mid-market firms on a daily basis regarding value creation. These conversations provide us with unique insights across a wide range of Private Equity firms regarding how Value Creation is addressed today. When we ask about value creation, there is one common theme that we keep hearing: procurement has historically been a blind spot at the PE level. There are multiple challenges that have contributed to procurement being under leveraged as a value creation lever for mid-market firms. Those include a lack of resources, changing priorities, perceived value, shifting responsibilities for team members, and turnover at firms. To combat these challenges, we’ve developed our Managed Portfolio Procurement (MPP) program, which addresses 5 key considerations and provides portfolio companies with a world class procurement offering. Here is a breakdown of those 5 focus areas: 1. Is there clear visiblity into the portolio's spend base? The ability to execute on cost reduction opportunities within a portfolio is only possible if there is clear visibility into the spend base for each portfolio company. It is critical that Accounts Payable (AP) data is collected and categorized on an annual basis for each company within a PE portfolio. Simple AP data analytics will go a long way in understanding where the strategic procurement opportunities exist both at the portfolio and cross-portfolio levels. Building out and maintaining a cross-portfolio spend cube is step one in realizing meaningful procurement value creation outcomes. 2. Is the strategy for low hanging fruit too simple? Interestingly, one of the biggest inhibitors of PE firms that keep them from being able to properly address procurement has been the prevalence of Group Purchasing Organizations (GPOs) in Private Equity. Don’t get us wrong, GPOs for common indirect spend categories such as small parcel, office supplies, and car rental are vital to a holistic procurement program and are part of our toolkit. However, it is all too common for PE firms to roll out GPO contracts to their portfolio companies, consider procurement to be “addressed,” and move on to the next priority, leaving millions of dollars on the table for their portfolio companies. GPOs work for portfolio companies with small to medium size spend in select categories, but once spend in a category exceeds a certain spend level, “off-the-shelf” GPO pricing is rarely the most competitive. 3. Does a strategy exist for portfolio company specific engagements to garner a higher return? The most meaningful procurement impact and EBIT relief will come from strategic portfolio company specific procurement optimization projects. These engagements will use the AP data analytics mentioned above to identify multiple spend categories at a portfolio company that can be addressed through strategic sourcing. Some common reasons why significant strategic procurement opportunities exist at mid-market PE backed companies are a lack of in-house category expertise, fragmented purchasing, a lack of unit level data, and a lack of procurement resources. The ability to identify and execute on these cost reduction opportunities at the portfolio company level in a rapid fashion (3-6 months) creates excitement amongst both the executive teams at portcos and PEdeal teams. 4. Does the program enable and develop procurement leaders across the portfolio? Introducing procurement knowledge and expertise to specific portfolio company is certainly useful, but being able to effectively share and transfer knowledge across the portfolio and educate multiple companies on procurement best practices is an additional layer of value that a best-in-class PE procurement program can provide. Providing the portfolio with access to CFO forums, procurement panel discussions, and SME presentations will help to maximize the utilization of procurement best practices. 5. Can spend be leveraged across the portfolio in certain categories? When reviewing a portfolio wide spend cube comprised of AP spend data from each portfolio company, common vendors and spend categories should emerge. This will be even more apparent if the PE firm’s investment focus is sector driven. There are a number of spend categories where there is a significant opportunity to leverage spend cross portfolio and use the portfolio’s collective purchasing power to negotiate favorable discount and rebate structures with best-in-class vendors. Treya’s MPP program is a holistic five-pronged program that creates a strong procurement foundation for our private equity clients by addressing each of the above areas. Our approach was developed through years of experience working alongside mid-market PE deal and ops teams and implements a program that can rapidly create meaningful EBIT impact while withstanding the headwinds of a fluid and constantly changing PE environment. By Chris TasiopoulosChris Tasiopoulos is a Business Development Manager with Treya Partners. Based in Boston, MA, Chris supports Treya Partner's private equity clients in several key markets.
![]() The coronavirus pandemic has not slowed private equity firms from putting their capital to work. Deal activity may have been down from March to April 2020, but deal volume was able to rebound by the fourth quarter of 2020, with deal counts and deal values reaching 10-year quarter highs. Deal multiples have also recovered from early 2020, with the median buy out multiple now at 14.1 (see chart 1). Historically, large, economically disruptive events like the "Great Recession" (2008 – 2010) have had a noticeable impact on private equity portfolio companies' holding periods. Specifically, investments made just before the recession, at peak valuations, were held longer. Chart 2 illustrates the increase in holding periods, peaking at 5.6 years in 2014. These acquisitions required longer holding periods to realize respectable returns. Consequently, median holding periods elongated. From 2014 – 2018, median holding periods for PE portfolio company exits showed a slight-but-steady downward trend, then leveled off just below five years. The coronavirus' extreme economic impact is expected to increase the median holding period as private equity firms delay exits, just like they did in the last recession. ![]() Almost without exception, PE firms will be looking to carefully manage their portfolios and create value during these extended hold periods in the wake of the pandemic (Jones, 2020). Procurement represents an often-untapped opportunity for value creation for many PE firms and their portfolio companies. Many PE firms are behind the curve on managing procurement. Given that operational value creation can account for up to 50% of some funds' internal rates of return (IRR), procurement should be a strategic consideration at the fund level. Optimizing procurement can help PE firms and their operating companies reap the rewards and reduce portfolio risk. Treya Partners helps our private equity clients leverage advanced procurement capabilities portfolio-wide; this represents a competitive differentiator. Whether your objectives are EBITDA improvements, budgetary cost savings, organizational or business process improvements, or procurement capability development, we provide the right mix of services, best practices, and expertise to deliver results. Our procurement programs are a significant value creation lever for our clients in what remains a highly volatile climate. By Steven DelCarlino, Manager, Treya Partners About the Author Steven DelCarlino leads client engagements and project teams for Treya Partner’s private equity clients and their portfolio companies. With over 15 years of experience working directly with corporations, international businesses, and private equity portfolio companies on strategic sourcing projects, Steven brings a diverse knowledge of spend categories and project management experience. Steven and his team provide a rigorous fact-driven analysis that accounts for the total cost of ownership, service needs, and long-standing supplier relationships for each engagement. Steven has managed sourcing projects in the logistics, packaging, raw materials, finished goods, facilities services, MRO, IT, and wireless sectors, among others. Before joining Treya Partners, Steven was a Manager with GEP Worldwide, a global provider of strategy, software, and managed services to procurement and supply chain organizations. Steven also led the procurement and supply chain offering at CMF Associates (now CBIZ Private Equity Advisory), a financial and operational solutions provider to private equity firms and their portfolio companies. Steven holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from Temple University and is an MBA candidate at the Kettering University School of Management; Steven also has a Supply Chain Management Certification from Villanova University. References: Jones, A. (2020, May 07). Private equity portfolio company holding Periods – Updated. Retrieved February 25, 2021, from https://blog.privateequityinfo.com/index.php/2020/05/07/private-equity-portfolio-company-holding-periods-updated-4/ US PE Breakdown. (2021, January 11). Retrieved February 25, 2021, from https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/2020_Annual_US_PE_Breakdown.pdf ![]() Numerous Private Equity (PE) portfolio companies, especially in distribution and services sectors, utilize fleet vehicles as part of their distribution and operations. Typically, these companies use a Fleet Management company to oversee all aspects of their fleet operations. However, Fleet Management companies do not always take a comprehensive approach to helping these companies optimally assess and manage their fleet costs, resulting in a detrimental impact on EBITDA. Treya recommends a holistic, Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) approach underpinned by detailed pricing, usage and benchmark data, to identity and optimize key cost drivers for fleet ownership and maintenance. This approach typically results in a 8-12% overall cost reduction, improved utilization and improved fleet operating metrics. A TCO approach is critical to understanding and optimizing the total cost of owning and maintaining a fleet. This involves managing each aspect of the life-cycle cost in detail including costs related to acquisition, fuel costs, maintenance costs, disposal value, and overall utilization. Companies should identify current costs and practices in each of these areas and compare those against best-in-class practices, and cost and operating metrics for similarly sized fleets. A quick benchmarking exercise can reveal key gaps in the existing program and key opportunities for improvement. In addition to benchmarking of current costs and operating metrics, companies should also assess and evaluate current practices in each of the TCO components and identify gaps. The TCO Table at the bottom of the article depicts key savings levers that should be thoroughly evaluated in each TCO area. For example, when acquiring new vehicles most companies look at comparing only the acquisition price, whereas if they looked at comparing overall TCO costs (looking at fuel and operating costs, and residual value at the end of the useful operating life) it might lead them to acquire a different vehicle. Frequently, vehicles with a lower acquisition price (or CAP rebate from the manufacturer) are not necessarily the lowest TCO vehicles. Companies should also look at current maintenance practices and institute best-in-class practices for fleet maintenance to help them reduce maintenance costs and improve fleet uptime. Most companies tend to hold on to vehicles well past their optimal hold times as they are fully depreciated. Companies should do a detailed analysis of overall holding cost and comparison against a comparable new vehicle taking into consideration typically greater fuel efficiencies and residual values. Finally, companies should look to periodically assess overall fleet utilization and seek to ensure that it stays above a minimum threshold. About Treya Partners
Treya Partners is a management consulting firm specializing in procurement value creation, strategic sourcing, and spend management advisory services for Private Equity. Treya was established in 2006 by a seasoned group of supply management professionals and has served hundreds of PE-owned companies across a broad range of industry sectors including manufacturing, distribution, retail, financial services, life sciences, healthcare, and technology. Treya delivers meaningful EBITDA improvements from indirect (SG&A) and COGS categories in addition to implementing transformative procurement projects. For further information, visit Treya Partners online at https://www.treyapartners.com. All steps of the Private Equity (PE) investment process are critical from early-stage due diligence to the final exit. After years of executing on the investment thesis including process improvements, product pricing optimization, cost reduction, talent management, add-on’s, tuck-in’s and excercising other value creation levers, a poorly planned or executed exit can make the difference between a great deal and a good deal. To unpack the value pre-exit procurement optimization can create, it is helpful to understand 2020 PE exit statistics: 2020 Private Equity Exit Activity Highlights
2020 PE Exit Details Total PE exit value increased from $357.0 billion to $378.3 billion despite the decrease in the number of exits ![]() 2021 forecasts indicate a high level of activity with some sources predicting 20% of buyouts will be priced above 20x EBITDA. The graph predicts a YOY increase in buyouts at 20x+. Price multiples in the public markets have carried into private markets. The S&P 500 now trades at a Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio of 34.77, up from 34.52 last month and up from 30.73 one year ago. This is a change of 0.70% from last month and 13.3% from one year ago. In the private market, the median multiple for buyouts was 12.7x through Q3 2020 which is a record high. Although the average multiple is being driven up by larger technology buyouts that are well above the 12.7x EBITDA level, the majority of exits in 2020 were in the 12x to 20x+ range and the same is expected to be true in 2021 ![]() A noticeable trend is the decline of sponsor-to-sponsor exits from 2019 to 2020. 390 out of 952 exits (41%) were sponsor in 2020, while 618 of 1107 exits (56%) were sponsor-to-sponsor in 2019. Although overall exists in 2020 declined from 2019, the percentage decline in sponsor-to-sponsor exits was significant. Pre-Exit Procurement Value Creation The majority of owners struggle to create value past the initial one to three years of the holding period, during which the primary value levers are typically pulled included procurement process improvement, upgrade of talent to support strategic sourcing, and running competitive processes to drive out costs on indirect spend and CoGS. And as the multiples get higher, so does the bar for a successful exit that is taking advantage of all potential pre-exit value creation opportunities. One of the mostly widely underutilized pre-exit value creation levers is procurement. Using the 2020 average of 12.7x EBITDA as the valuation, a narrowly focused and strategically executed procurement improvement initative will typically delivery $10M to $25M in enterprise value for mid-market portfolio companies with increasingly higher returns as the addressable spend increases. At the beginning of the holding period, management is highly engaged and excited to kick-off the value creation process. The management team spearheads large transformation programs, systems upgrades and integrations, reductions in overhead expenses, and commercial improvements in areas such as pricing. In the years that follow, focus shifts to maintenance and M&A activity. The change often results in less focus on further sharpening of the pencil. Management becomes board. As management becomes distracted at the back end of the holding period, swift and targeted procurement value creation engagements can energize the team and produce meaningful impact. Results are dependent on several criteria: Criteria for a Successful Engagement #1 – Management has meaningful equity stake in the company: Equity owners quickly calculate the EBITDA impact of a cost reduction project to valuation and then to their bank accounts. The direct connection is much more immediate than early hold period projections. #2 - Proper Evaluation of Spend to Address: Spend addressed through procurement improvement activities must bring material improvement to EBITDA and create hard dollar savings to be included in Quality of Earnings (QofE) #3 – Adequate Time to Deliver & Document : At least 4 months is required to deliver and document savings during a targeted pre-exit procurement improvement initiative Steps to Maximize Procurement Value Pre-Exit Step 1: Perform an Accounts Payable spend analysis 18 months before the intended time of exit Step 2: Identify 3-5 spend categories or vendors with highest potential for cost reductions Step 3: Identify of sub-set of categories/vendors with lower cost reduction potential to leave on the table as potential value creation opportunities for the buyer Step 4: Determine combination of 3rd party and internal resources to execute on cost reduction efforts, which can include a mix of incumbent supplier negotiations, competitive bidding processes, and GPO utilization Step 5: Complete an ‘outside-in’ assessment of the savings opportunity for each category Step 6: Develop a category by category approach with timeline to execute Step 7: Execute Step 8: Document results for Quality of Earnings. Example of Treya Partners Enterprise Value Creation Results Treya Partner's Accelerate Program
Treya Partners is a management consulting firm specializing in procurement value creation, strategic sourcing, and spend management advisory services for Private Equity. Treya offers a broad range of value creation programs including Managed Portfolio Procurement (MPP), Procurement Transformation, and most recently, it’s pre-exit offering, Accelerate. Accelerate is a “SWAT team” approach to pre-exit procurement value creation designed to deliver maximum value in an abbreviated project timeframe for a seller while developing a procurement value creation roadmap for potential buyers. Treya was established in 2006 by a seasoned group of supply management professionals and has served hundreds of PE-owned companies across a broad range of industry sectors including manufacturing, distribution, retail, financial services, life sciences, healthcare, and technology. Treya delivers meaningful EBITDA improvements for both indirect (SG&A) and COGS spend categories in addition to implementing transformative procurement improvement projects. For further information, visit Treya Partners online at https://www.treyapartners.com. ![]() What We Saw in 2020 - 2020 was a year that spanned the activity spectrum in Private Equity. While PE firms entered the year looking to ride the momentum generated in 2019 both on the deal and fundraising front, things came to a screeching halt with the onset of a global pandemic. In Q2 we saw stillness followed by a significant period of uncertainty. Most firms shifted to an all hands on-deck defensive strategy to help their negatively impacted portfolio companies in any way they could. However, the Private Equity industry did not sit back idly and let that become the narrative for all of 2020. By Q3, the initial Covid shock had worn off and activity picked up across the industry. The summer and autumn saw an uptick in activity as PE firms adjusted to a limited travel Covid era existence. Now, in Q1 2021, the industry finds itself looking to ride the unexpected momentum that the second half of 2020 provided. The IT, Healthcare, and B2B sectors claimed the majority of 2020 deals, measured in dollars. As illustrated in the graphic below, those three sectors dominated deal flow in 2020, while the B2C and Energy sectors took a significant step backwards. The graphic below is representative of the momentum that was halted by Covid in the spring of 2020, and then picked back up in the fall. Despite a global pandemic, M&A activity only declined by 5% by number of deals between 2019 to 2020: What can be expected across the Private Equity landscape in 2021? Deal Flow Will Be Strong ![]() First, we firmly expect the flurry of deal activity to continue through the first half of 2021. With the rollout of Covid vaccines, it seems the most uncertain times are behind us. One glaring data point to support this thesis is the $1.7 Trillion in Dry Powder that the Private Equity industry was carrying into 2021. Capital raised nearly peaked in 2019. That fundraising flurry has surely contributed to the glut of dry powder that exists today, as the Fundraising graphic to the left illustrates. This deployable capital can be expected to be put to work early and often this year, due in part to the backlog of deal related diligence activity in 2020. With much less Covid-related uncertainty now, we expect more deals close as a direct result of the resumption of diligence activity in Q3 and Q4 of 2020. Deal flow in 2021 will also be supported by a likely increase in corporate carveouts. Many large companies have been dealt a significant blow by the pandemic and a significant number of those companies are continuing to feel the pain, over 11 months since the first shutdowns. While they are still struggling to find their footing early in the new year, Private Equity investors have been patiently sitting on $1.7 Trillion in dry powder. Carveout activity has been on a steady decline since 2015. The market is poised for a potential off-trend uptick in carveouts in 2021 and it will be interesting to keep an eye on this in the months ahead. The combination of excess dry powder and large public companies licking their Covid wounds can bode well for opportunistic Private Equity firms looking to close carveout deals as large public companies, especially those struggling, consider all options, including the sale of non-core business units. ![]() Add Ons Will Be Popular Now that we have established the rationale for anticipating a deal heavy year, the question then becomes “What type of deals will tell the story of 2021 in Private Equity?” The Private Equity industry seems aligned on the expectation that Add-On deals will be the most common in 2021. In a recent survey of Private Equity professionals conducted by ACG and sponsored by advisory firm Dixon Hughes Goodman, more than 60% of respondents said they expect add-ons to take center stage. If the back half of 2020 is any indication of what the Private Equity landscape is going to look like during and post-Covid, it is worth noting that according to Pitchbook data, add-on deals accounted for 73% of Private Equity buyouts in Q3 2020, the highest number on record. This trend also leads us to believe that Average Deal Size in terms of dollars will remain consistent with the prior decade, with deals under $250M accounting for over 80% of total M&A activity each year. ![]() Founders Will Be Seeking Investments The propensity towards deal making in 2021 will not just be unilateral with Private Equity firms looking to deploy a glut of dry powder. Family and founder-owned businesses will surely be re-evaluating their openness to sale this year. Even those fortunate enough to survive 2020 with little to no negative impact will still likely have their eyes and ears open as PE firms come knocking. Baby Boomers are in a position where they may want to finally cash in if the right opportunity presents itself. One third of the US population is either close to, or over, the age of 60. Witnessing the fallout from the pandemic and leading their companies through the storm may very well be the final challenge that leads founders to decide that the now is the time to either sell or assist with a management led leveraged buyout. The combination of this baby boomer population aging and the very real risk of them losing their life’s work due to a global pandemic very much out of their control should incentivize founders who managed through 2020 to cut a deal. ![]() 2021 Will Be a Busy Year for Private Equity, and Treya Partners is Poised to Support Cost Reduction Efforts for New Deals The newswire in the Private Equity industry will be hot throughout this year and firms will be ready for the action. Coming off a year filled with uncertainty to a degree many have never seen, PE firms are battle tested and ready to take lessons learned and use them to be as opportunistic as possible in 2021. Focus on operational synergies and integration will be top of mind for fund managers and they will be making sure they have the resources and tools in place to optimize their buy and build strategies. At Treya Partners, we are prepared to be heavily involved in the deals our Private Equity clients close this year and we will be supporting them through cost reduction and procurement optimization efforts so their teams can focus on the next deal to be had in this opportunistic market. About Treya Partners Treya Partners is a management consulting firm specializing in procurement value creation, strategic sourcing, and spend management advisory services for Private Equity. Treya was established in 2006 by a seasoned group of supply management professionals and has served hundreds of PE-owed companies across a broad range of industry sectors including manufacturing, distribution, retail, financial services, life sciences, healthcare, and technology. Treya delivers meaningful EBITDA improvements from indirect (SG&A) and CoGS categories in addition to implementing transformative procurement projects. For further information, visit Treya Partners online at https://www.treyapartners.com. Each year small parcel carriers institute a General Rate Increase (GRI). Given the impacts of Covid on carrier network capacity and the additional capacity burden on the less profitable residential network, 2021 will bring significant GRI increases. For example, FedEx has already announced a general rate increase for 2021 of 4.9% to 5.9% on many services, beginning January 4, 2021. The increase applies to FedEx’s Air and International, Ground, SmartPost, and Freight customers. Accessorial fees will also not go untouched. FedEx will make changes and additions to close to 40 accessorials, fees, and surcharges. The impact on individual shippers will vary greatly depending on package characteristics, shipment type, and ship to locations with large package shippers realizing the highest increase. In addition to the rate increase, FedEx will also institute a 6% late payment fee. As carriers experience an increase in e-commerce residential shipments for over-sized items, additional handling charges may also have a larger impact on a company’s total transportation spend. For example, effective January 18th, 20201, FedEx’s new trigger for additional handling dimensions is 105” combined length plus girth (length and girth = length + 2*height + 2*width). The impact of the added volume to the carriers ground network is evident in UPS Q3 earnings. UPS’s quarterly profit beat expectations, but shares dropped 5.5% as investors scrutinized the drop in margin due to the pandemic. Highlights of the Q3 UPS earnings:
Ending a challenging year of from the pandemic, with a higher than expected peak holiday surcharge is continuing to stress the carrier networks. But what does that mean for 2021? Here are 3 tips to consider as you close out the year of the pandemic and ring in 2021. 1. Develop dynamic models to forecast shipment costs with consideration of standard GRI, volume increases/deceases, accessorial fees, minimum charges and zone increases. Examine the models to determine options for mode shifting, packaging changes, and other areas to minimize cost per package increases. The increases will NOT have the same cost per package impact for all shippers. For example, a low weight e-commerce ground shipper on FedEx will have 6%+ increase for the 1-5lb packages. 2. Re-examine your distribution center locations. Shippers with one coastal distribution center will a national customer base will see larger increases due to longer zones than their competitors with regional distribution centers. Again, modeling the financial and operational impact of an additional distribution center or centers arms you and your team with the data needed to make informed decisions. 3. Evaluate your shipping options and incentives at checkout. Many B2C companies during the pandemic provide additional incentives for online orders picked up a store locations or central locations. There are many different options for shippers to explore. ![]() If you have additional questions about potential cost increases, Treya can assist with modeling and comprehensive analysis of your transportation, accessorial fees and surcharges. In addition to current rate analysis and modeling, we can identify potential cost mitigation options. For Private Equity owned companies, we also offer additional options to manage parcel costs via our leveraged volume rates. Click HERE for additional information on the program. |